Given the new developments (Biden’s drop out, the Paris terror attacks), how are the swing states swinging? Trump is still on a poll high, Cruz is rising, and Bernie Sanders is building support, although still trailing behind Hillary Clinton. Who will catch the 270 win from the swing states?
The Swing States
Colorado—9 Electoral Votes/270 Win
According to a Quinnipiac poll, Hillary Clinton is behind Marco Rubio by 16 percentage points, and falls behind Carson and Trump. Clinton gets the highest points for experience, but the lowest on honesty and trustworthiness. Carson has the highest favorability rating, but the lowest for leadership qualities. Rubio has the best honesty score.
Florida—29 Electoral Votes/270 Win
The Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative have Trump at the forefront of the GOP race, leading Clinton in a mock one-on-one match-up. Trump is ahead of the Republican candidates at 36%, followed by Rubio at 18/5. Trump is ahead of Clinton by 9.7 points, and she falls behind Carson by 10 points, and Cruz by 8.7. Florida voters continue to hold the Emailgate scandal against Clinton.
Iowa—6 Electoral Votes/270 Win
In Iowa, according to a CNN/ORC poll, Trump is leading the Republican race at 33%, 13 points over Cruz, who beat Carson by 4 points. Trump is considered most fit to handle illegal immigration, the economy, and foreign affairs (such as ISIS). Cruz is most favored by white evangelicals, while Carson is leading on social issues. On the Democrats’ side, Clinton leads Sanders by 18 points overall. Sanders leads Clinton by 7 points on middle class issues.
Ohio—18 Electoral Votes/270 Win
Donald Trump is ahead of the Republican game at 23%, 5 points ahead of Carson. However, 29% of the Republican voters in Ohio would definitely not support Trump. On the Democrats’ side, Clinton is ahead of Sanders by 21 points, with 14% definitely not supporting her.
Both Trump and Clinton have negative 34-58% on favorability ratings. Clinton would also lose by 9 points in a hypothetical match-up with Carson. She would lose to Rubio by 5 points, but win over Trump by 1.
Nevada—6 Electoral Votes/270 Win
In Nevada, Trump leads at 38%, 16 points ahead of Carson. Trump is the most accepted leader on the economic issues (67% of those surveyed agree) and illegal immigration (55% agree). 60% believe him the best candidate to change Washington. For the Democrats, Clinton is strong in Nevada, leading Sanders by 22 points at 58%. She is seen as the best candidate to handle the economy, foreign policy, and health care.
New Hampshire—4 Electoral Votes/270 Win
For New Hampshire Republican primary voters, Marco Rubio is Donald Trump’s constant runner-up as the hypothetical winner. Rubio leads in favorability ratings at 61% (followed by Trump), and is also considered the most likeable candidate at 22% (followed by Carson). On the Democrats’ side, according to a Monmouth poll, Clinton has regained her lead with the Democratic base over Bernie Sanders, by 3 points.
Virginia—13 Electoral Votes/270 Win
A new Virginia survey for the University of Mary Washington puts Clinton as the overall winner in hypothetical match-ups, with 11 points over Trump and 2 points over Carson. Based on all respondents (Democrat/Republican/Independent), Trump would win over Carson, but just by 1 point. Based on Republican/Republican-leaning respondents, Trump would win over Carson by just 2 points. Rubio is generally their runner-up.
Swing States for the 270 Win: Trump vs. Clinton?
Despite rising national support for Cruz, Marco Rubio and Ben Carson are the swing state favorites next to Donald Trump. Rubio’s support is high in Colorado (he leads there), Florida, and New Hampshire. On the other hand, Carson is the favorite runner-up in Ohio, Nevada, and Virginia. Cruz comes to the forefront only in Iowa.
For the Democrats, Clinton is maintaining her top-of-the-polls position. In hypothetical match-ups, however, she would lose to Rubio in Colorado, Trump in Florida, and Carson in Ohio. However, she would win over Trump in both Ohio and Virginia.
If the respective parties chose their nominees today, by the swing states alone it could be predicted that Trump and Clinton would win the nominations. However, when it comes to the hypothetical match-ups, the outcome is much hazier—especially since Florida might go with Trump.